On June 12, 2026, SpaceX became a public company. The largest IPO in history, 555 million shares priced at $135, valued the company at roughly $1.75 trillion. But the real story unfolded immediately after: the stock surged 19% on debut day, pushed the market cap past $3 trillion at one point, then plunged back to its $150 opening price in less than two weeks.

On its first trading day, SPCX opened at $150, 11% above the IPO price. Within hours, the stock hit a daily high of $176, briefly valuing the company at over $2.3 trillion. By the close, the stock settled at $161, up 19%.

The first full trading day, Monday, June 15, brought another 20% gain, closing at $192.50 on 244 million shares traded. Market capitalization briefly surpassed Amazon and even Microsoft. Elon Musk became the world's first trillionaire.

Then the momentum reversed.

What Drove the Selloff

Three factors triggered the steep decline. First: valuation concerns. At its peak, SPCX traded at a price-to-sales multiple exceeding 120x based on 2025 revenue of roughly $18.7 billion. CFRA initiated coverage with a "sell" rating and a $115 price target, nearly 30% below the closing price at the time. Morningstar valued the stock at $63 per share.

Second: the $60 billion all-stock acquisition of Cursor, an AI coding startup. The deal raised heavy investor concerns about dilution, integration risks, and Musk's capital allocation. Reports indicate the selloff that followed erased roughly $600 billion in market value.

Third: SpaceX announced a senior unsecured notes offering worth approximately $20 billion, just days after the IPO. The company disclosed $100.8 billion in cash on hand, a figure that surprised many investors and fueled a sense that the bond sale wasn't urgent but rather aimed at financing ambitious AI plans.

On Monday, June 22, the stock fell 16% in a single session, the steepest daily drop since the IPO. Over three consecutive trading days, SPCX lost roughly 24% of its value.

What Analysts Are Saying

Opinions on SpaceX's true value are sharply divided. James Ratzer, partner and senior analyst at NewStreet Research, set a $165 price target and emphasized that SpaceX is "a much longer-dated equity story than most."

"You have to be looking out over a kind of 20 to 25-year time frame," Ratzer told CNBC. "A lot of the building blocks are in place to succeed, but it is definitely a longer-dated equity story than most."

Ratzer noted that SpaceX has "at least a 10-year lead" over competitors in launch capability and estimates that in four to five years, the company will control over 90% of the world's orbital launch capacity.

On the other end, Oppenheimer raised its target to $250, citing AI growth potential. The consensus among 15 analysts tracked by MarketBeat is a "moderate buy" with an average price target of $213.

Why It Matters

SpaceX is not a typical tech stock. The company owns two unprecedented strategic assets: Starlink, the world's largest satellite internet network with approximately 10 million subscribers and projected 2026 revenue of $15-20 billion, and Starship, the reusable heavy-lift launch system that could transform the economics of space.

Starlink accounts for roughly 70-80% of total revenue, with high gross margins (around 85%). The subscriber base is expected to roughly double this year to 16-18 million.

Starship, however, has yet to generate meaningful commercial revenue. Development costs remain high. The company reported a net loss of $4.9 billion in 2025 and another $4.28 billion in the first quarter of 2026. Capital expenditures in Q1 alone reached $10.1 billion, the majority directed at AI infrastructure.

Catalysts Ahead

Several events could shift the stock's direction in the coming months: Nasdaq 100 inclusion (July 2026) which will drive passive inflows, the company's first quarterly earnings report as a public company, advanced Starship V3 test flights, and Starlink subscriber growth updates.

On the other side, the 180-day lock-up period for employees and early investors expires in December 2026, potentially flooding the market with significant supply.

The Bottom Line

SpaceX has completed one of the most dramatic weeks in Wall Street history, from a record IPO, through a 50% rally that made Musk the first trillionaire, to a sharp retreat back to the opening price. The stock's true test will be Starlink's ability to sustain growth, Starship's transition from testing to commercial operations, and whether investors are willing to bet on a 20-to-25-year vision at a price that reflects immediate success.