U.S. stock futures are trading slightly lower Monday morning as markets reopen after the Juneteenth holiday on Friday. S&P 500 futures are down roughly 0.34%, the Dow is off 0.23%, and the Nasdaq-100 futures are losing about 0.25%, modest moves that reflect a cautious tone rather than outright selling.
The Headlines Driving the Morning
The Fed is still the elephant in the room. Last week's FOMC meeting, the first chaired by Kevin Warsh, delivered a unanimous hold at 3.50%-3.75%, but the communication was unambiguously hawkish. The median dot for end-2026 now sits at 3.8%, implying at least one rate hike before year-end. Markets are pricing a non-trivial chance of a move in September, a sharp reversal from the rate-cut expectations that dominated early 2026.
Inflation remains sticky. May PCE data, due Thursday, is expected to show headline PCE rising to 4.0% year-over-year from 3.8% in April. Core PCE is projected at 0.2% month-over-month. The data will be scrutinized as the last major inflation reading before the next FOMC decision.
Oil falls on Iran peace talks. Crude prices are extending their decline following progress in U.S.-Iran negotiations in Switzerland. Iran's foreign minister confirmed the country secured waivers for oil and petrochemical exports, reducing the geopolitical risk premium that had built up earlier this year. Brent crude is trading around $79 a barrel, down roughly 2%. West Texas Intermediate is near $75.20. Gold, meanwhile, is holding above $4,195 an ounce, reflecting lingering uncertainty.
Index Rebalancing Day
Today marks the effective date of the Nasdaq-100's quarterly rebalance. Five stocks join the index: Astera Labs (ALAB), CoreWeave (CRWV), Nebius Group (NBIS), Rocket Lab (RKLB), and Teradyne (TER). Five are removed: Charter Communications (CHTR), Cognizant (CTSH), Insmed (INSM), Verisk (VRSK), and Zscaler (ZS). The moves will generate outsized trading volume in these names as ETF and institutional portfolios adjust.
The Russell index reconstitution follows later this week, effective after Friday's close, a much broader rebalance affecting hundreds of stocks across the Russell 1000, 2000, and 3000.
Earnings: A Pivotal Week
It's a big week for corporate results:
Micron Technology (MU) reports Wednesday after the close. Expectations are elevated after a record-breaking Q2 that delivered $23.86 billion in revenue. Analysts are looking for roughly $34.8 billion in revenue this quarter and EPS around $19.72, driven by relentless AI demand for HBM memory. Gross margins are projected at roughly 81%, extraordinary by any measure.
FedEx (FDX) reports Tuesday after the bell, the first report since completing the FedEx Freight spin-off. Consensus calls for EPS of $5.91 on $24.18 billion in revenue. Investors will focus on the DRIVE cost-savings program and how the new segment structure affects reporting.
Other notable reports this week include Carnival (CCL), Paychex (PAYX), and KB Home (KBH).
The Bottom Line
The week opens quietly, but the real action lies ahead. Micron's results will be a crucial temperature check on the AI-semiconductor boom, while FedEx will offer a window into the broader economy. Thursday's PCE print will test bond markets and rate expectations. The message from futures this morning is clear: traders are not relaxing, and this week could provide sharp answers to some big open questions.