The Federal Reserve released the full opening statement and press conference materials from Chairman Kevin Warsh’s latest FOMC meeting on July 29, 2026. The materials underscore the committee’s focus on inflation dynamics and direct market signals.

Economist Ernie Tedeschi, Chief Economist at Stripe, analyzed the latest readings and concluded that trend U.S. inflation appears to be firming. Core measures excluding food, energy, housing and imputations sit well above pre-pandemic levels and continue to accelerate.

Tedeschi highlighted that even after stripping out goods, which can be skewed by tariffs and AI-related effects, market-based core services ex-housing are accelerating at the strongest pace since 2003–2008. Services now represent a larger share of consumption than they did then, amplifying their contribution to overall inflation.

Lyn Alden noted that bond bulls have shifted their narrative away from deflation arguments toward reactions focused on Warsh’s statements and incoming data. Treasury yields remain highly sensitive to monetary policy expectations, with long-term rates reflecting compounded short-rate paths plus a term premium tied to inflation and growth outlooks.

Tedeschi further emphasized in replies that Treasuries are highly exposed to U.S. monetary policy expectations. Warsh’s comments on “direct and unfiltered” market signals, such as rising bond yields, are being interpreted by markets as reducing near-term easing expectations and supporting higher yields as evidence of persistent price pressures.

On the European front, the European Central Bank shared a blog post examining how surging energy prices are pushing up euro-area inflation. The analysis uses real-time textual data to assess whether firms perceive these price increases as demand-driven or supply-constrained.

The ECB post highlights the challenge of distinguishing between the two drivers in real time, noting that energy shocks can have both demand and supply components depending on the sector and the persistence of the price move.

The Bank of Israel continues to anchor its policy around the 2% inflation target within a 1–3% tolerance band. Rate decisions are explicitly tied to inflation forecasts, the labor market, the exchange rate and global developments.

Analysts following the BoI note that the bank has consistently used the policy rate as its primary tool to return inflation to target, whether through tightening when pressures rise or easing when they subside.

Market participants are watching how the combination of firming U.S. core inflation and higher bond yields will influence the Fed’s next moves, while the ECB’s energy-focused analysis adds another layer to euro-area inflation expectations.

The discussion across these central-bank voices points to a common theme: inflation pressures are proving more persistent than many models anticipated earlier in the year, with market signals and energy costs playing prominent roles.

Why it matters

Central bank communications and data releases move FX rates, bond markets and equity valuations worldwide. Understanding the specific inflation components and market signals cited by officials helps clarify the likely path of policy rates in the coming months.

The bottom line

July 29 data and commentary from the Fed, ECB and independent macro voices indicate firming core inflation in the U.S. and energy-driven price pressures in Europe, with bond yields acting as a real-time gauge of shifting policy expectations. All figures and statements are drawn directly from official and verified X accounts in the macro_central_banks profile.