Wall Street is trading in mixed fashion today (Tuesday, June 30), with the Dow Jones Industrial Average holding the 52,000 level after closing at a record 52,182.74 on Monday, the first-ever close above the symbolic threshold. But beneath the surface, technical analysts and wave traders are flagging RSI divergence and corrective wave structures that suggest near-term caution.

The week opened with positive momentum after the Iran weekend, which the market has now fully priced in. All major indices closed green Monday, led by technology (XLK +2.37%) and consumer discretionary (XLY +2.40%). The VIX eased to 17.57, indicating a calmer volatility environment. But in the traders' view, the real test will come from this week's data cascade: JOLTS today, ADP and ISM tomorrow, and the NFP report on Thursday, moved up due to the July 4th holiday on Friday.

Wave Structure: Nasdaq in Wave 4 Correction, S&P 500 Chopping Sideways

Elliott Wave analysis circulating in today's technical conversation paints a complex picture. According to analysts, the S&P 500 completed an impulsive advance (Primary Wave 3) from early March through early June, peaking around 7,620. Since then, the market has been in a correction, identified by some as Wave 4 and by others as a smaller-degree Wave 2 correction.

The critical support level in focus is 7,317–7,336 on the S&P 500. Holding this level keeps the bullish structure intact. A break below, especially on a daily close, could open the door toward 7,200 and eventually 7,000. On the upside, immediate resistance sits at 7,485–7,500, with the next major test at the early June high near 7,620.

For the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), the picture is sharper. Weekend post-market analysis suggested Primary Wave 3 completed near 30,762, and the Nasdaq is now in the midst of a Wave 4 correction. Two key support levels cited are 28,045 and 27,488. QQQ is trading around $730–733, with near-term support at $718–722.

Dow Grinds to New Highs, But RSI Flashes a Warning

The Dow is the big positive story of recent days. The industrial average broke above 52,000 for the first time ever in Monday's close, and is trading today around 52,200–52,300. Technical analysts note the ascending channel in place since April remains intact, with lower-end support near 50,870.

But it's not all bullish. Analysis circulating in the conversation highlights bearish RSI divergence, upside momentum weakening as price rises, raising the risk of a sharp pullback. Immediate resistance is pegged at 52,670 (the upper end of the channel), with a break above 53,000 opening room for further gains. First critical support: 51,300, last week's low.

Small Caps: The Signal That Has Traders Worried

The hottest topic in today's wave-trader conversation is the Russell 2000 (IWM). While every major index rallied Monday, IWM was the notable exception, closing flat and still below the psychological $300 level. Analysts argue that IWM's failure to break above 300 during a broad risk-on session counts as the first real warning signal in two weeks.

That said, IWM's technical indicators are not outright bearish: RSI at 61.5 with room to run, positive MACD, and price trading above all major moving averages. The key, per analysts, is a close above $300, which would confirm market breadth. A break below $296 would be the first serious negative signal.

Stocks on Watch: Tesla Surges, Apple Slides

Several names feature prominently in the technical conversation. Tesla surged 8.46% on Monday to close at $411.84, testing resistance near $413. The next significant support sits at $364, a weekly base. Wave analysts see this as a corrective move that may continue sideways unless it breaks above $420.

Apple, by contrast, weakened 2.04% to close at $281.74. Traders note it remains in an overall uptrend since March (from $245), but RSI above 72 signals overbought conditions and a likely technical pullback.

NVIDIA is trading around $195 after a modest gain, with support at $191 and a deeper floor at $183. The intraday structure continues to develop within a medium-term rising channel, despite the pullback from May's all-time high of $236.54.

The Bottom Line

The market sits at a delicate technical crossroads. On one hand, the Dow is at record highs, tech is retaking leadership, and the VIX is declining. On the other, wave structures point to a correction in progress, RSI divergence flashes warning signs, and small caps are failing to confirm the momentum.

This week will be decisive: the jobs data, combined with key levels in the S&P 500 (7,317–7,336) and IWM (296–300), will determine whether the current correction is a healthy pause before another leg up, or the beginning of a more significant decline. Technical traders are watching closely, with eyes on today's JOLTS print and especially Thursday's NFP report.