Wall Street is trading mixed today (Wednesday) with the S&P 500 hovering near 7,417, up roughly 0.7% on the session, after a pullback from early-June highs around 7,620. The technical conversation centers on whether the current correction is a natural pause within a larger impulse or the beginning of a deeper retracement.
Wave Structure: Wave 3 Extends, But Nears a Decisive Moment
The dominant Elliott Wave interpretation continues to frame a bullish impulsive structure from the March lows (6,310–6,320). Within this advance, wave ((ii)) found support at 7,336.33, and subsequent sub-waves pushed to a 7,620.90 high in wave (i).
The critical level is 7,336. As long as this swing low holds, corrective pullbacks are expected to unfold in 3- or 7-swing patterns before the uptrend resumes. A break below 7,336 would invalidate the impulsive count from the March low and open the door to a larger correction.
The index is trading in a 7,369–7,428 intraday range, with immediate support at 7,370–7,380 and stronger support in the 7,320–7,334 zone (the 50-day moving average area). First resistance: 7,443–7,462, then 7,500–7,530.
Micron Takes Center Stage, High-Volatility Event
Micron Technology (MU) earnings after today's close are the session's main catalyst. The stock trades near $1,051.77 after a sharp pullback from its all-time high of $1,213.56 on June 21. Options pricing implies an 11%–14% move in either direction post-earnings.
The decline mirrors profit-taking across the semiconductor complex: NVDA trades around $200 after retreating from $222 highs, and AMD sits near $520 after hitting $563. NVDA's RSI (14) sits in neutral-to-slightly-oversold territory (38–45), suggesting potential for stabilization. Broader semi stocks face pressure from valuation concerns and competitive dynamics.
Nasdaq and Dow at Key Junctions
The Nasdaq-100 (QQQ) pulled back after a second touch of the psychologically important 30,000 level and remains vulnerable to further downside. The 50-day EMA near 28,750 is the next key support. A decisive break above 30,000 would be a bullish technical signal.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average recently tested the 52,000–52,200 resistance zone and retreated toward 51,300. Analysts flag a rising wedge pattern that could lead to further correction. Above 52,275, the path to 53,000 opens.
Energy Divergence, XOM in a Bearish Wave Sequence
In contrast to the broad market, Exxon Mobil (XOM) shows a clear bearish Elliott Wave sequence from its June 4 high. Elliott Wave Forecast analysis details a descending impulse: Wave 1 at $149.3, Wave 2 at $153.81, and Wave 3 reaching $135.85. The corrective Wave 4 bounce is expected to face resistance at $140.6–$142.81 before resuming lower toward $107.9–$129.2 targets. Weakening oil prices reinforce the bearish read.
The Bottom Line
The market is in a waiting pattern, Micron earnings tonight are the nearest catalyst, and wave structures remain bullish as long as the 7,336–7,400 zone in the S&P 500 holds. The open question is whether the current correction is complete or has further volatility ahead. Semiconductor stocks are at the center of the storm, and the market's reaction to Micron's report will set the tone for the week ahead.
