The trading week that ended Thursday (June 19) left markets in a technically mixed state. The S&P 500 closed near 7,500, up roughly 0.9% on the week, but the picture beneath the surface is more nuanced. Technology surged 4.4% and led all 11 S&P sectors, while the equal-weight S&P 500 was essentially flat (+0.1%), revealing a troubling concentration in a handful of mega-cap names.
Activity was lighter than usual due to the Juneteenth holiday on Thursday, but volatility still made an appearance: a sharp 1.2% selloff mid-week on hawkish Fed signals was almost entirely erased by Friday's early rebound.
What the Analysts Are Saying
S&P 500 Elliott Wave, Wave 3 Extending
Analysts at Elliott Wave Forecast continue to identify an impulsive structure from the March 30 low. Their count shows Wave 1 peaking near 7,147, Wave 2 correcting to 7,046, and Wave 3 now unfolding with internal sub-waves. The recent highs around 7,620-7,609 fall within sub-wave (iii) of Wave 3, and the critical bull-case pivot sits at 7,336, as long as the index holds above this level, the uptrend remains intact.
But not everyone agrees. Analysts at Investing.com flagged worrying breadth divergences this week, warning of a larger-degree correction that could target the 6,840-7,075 zone if resistance at 7,598 fails to hold.
Dow Jones, Wave 3 Targeting 53,000
The Dow presented a cleaner wave structure: a zigzag Wave 2 correction completed at 49,865, followed by a resuming impulsive Wave 3. Sub-waves: (i) to 51,723, (ii) pullback to 51,230, (iii) to 52,380. According to ActionForex, another leg higher in wave (v) is expected to complete sub-wave ((i)) of the larger degree, with a price target of 53,000+. The bearish invalidation level sits at 49,865.
Sectors: Tech vs. Energy, the Widest Gap in Months
This week revealed a stark sector divergence:
- Technology (+4.4%), led by semiconductors and AI names. The SMH ETF posted a cumulative gain of roughly 83% year-to-date, riding the AI infrastructure supercycle.
- Industrials (+3.2%), also outperformed.
- Energy (-5.9%), the worst performer, as crude oil dropped roughly 13% on reports of a U.S.-Iran deal easing supply concerns.
- Market breadth: Only 58% of S&P 500 stocks trade above their 50-day moving average, an improvement from March lows but still below the 65-70% threshold considered healthy.
WTI crude was trading in the $75-85 range, with key technical pivots at $68 (deep support), $85-92 (intermediate support), and $100 (psychological resistance).
Gold, Range-bound with a Bearish Lean
Gold, trading around $4,145-4,200, showed a weakening technical structure with lower lows and lower highs on the daily chart. The 200-day moving average has been breached, and technicians are eyeing $4,000 as the last line of defense for the bulls. First resistance sits at $4,450-4,500.
The Bottom Line
The technical conversation this week revolves around one key question: will Wave 3 in the S&P 500 extend beyond 7,620 in June, or will breadth divergences and flagging momentum trigger a deeper correction? The wave counts in the Dow and Nasdaq continue to support a medium-term bullish scenario, but the concentration of gains in a few tech names has analysts wary.
Focus for the week ahead: the 7,450-7,500 zone as a short-term inflection point for the S&P, and fresh all-time highs in the Dow on the path to 52,500+. From a wave-structure perspective, the key level is 7,336. As long as it holds, the impulsive count remains valid.
