The third trading day of the week unfolds under the shadow of the first rate decision by new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. Markets are in a "wait and see" posture — the Dow Jones hits fresh record highs near 52,000, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq struggle to sustain momentum.
The Big Picture: Dow at Record, Tech Under Pressure
On Tuesday (June 16), the Dow closed at an all-time high of 51,999.67, up 0.64%. In contrast, the S&P 500 fell 0.57% to 7,511, and the Nasdaq dropped 1.15% to 26,376, led lower by big-cap tech stocks.
The divergence reflects a continuing rotation from technology into value and cyclical names — a trend that has strengthened in recent weeks. A notable exception is SpaceX (SPCX), which continues to captivate traders.
Key Technical Levels Traders Are Watching
The S&P 500 faces significant resistance in the 7,500–7,520 zone, near its 20-day moving average. A breakout above this level could restore short-term bullish momentum. On the downside, immediate support sits around 7,237, with a stronger zone at 7,050–7,175.
For the Nasdaq, resistance is in the 26,410–26,560 area, while strong support lies in the 25,500–25,600 range — a critical level for the broader uptrend.
NVDA trades around $206–208, with nearby resistance at $208.7 and then $211.7–212.9. Support at $205.9, then $204.4. TSLA trades around $399–401, near its first support level of $399.3. AAPL around $298–299.
SpaceX: Second Wave or Correction?
The hottest stock on Wall Street right now — SpaceX (SPCX) — recorded an extraordinary intraday range of roughly $187 to $213.80, closing near $193.57. After the meteoric run to $225 on Monday, significant profit-taking emerged, but the stock remains approximately 43% above its IPO price of $135.
Technically, the stock is in a consolidation phase following its post-IPO momentum surge. RSI hovers around 50–60, with no clear directional divergence. Near-term support sits in the $201–$206 zone, with resistance at the $225 high.
Gold Steady, Oil and Bitcoin Weak
Gold (XAU/USD) trades around $4,330–$4,360 per ounce. The short-term outlook is mixed but leans bullish on a weaker dollar. Key resistance is at $4,390–$4,400, with support at $4,246–$4,258.
Crude oil (WTI) continues to weaken, trading around $75–$77 per barrel. The technical structure is bearish, with potential for a decline toward $71–$70 if the break below $75 holds.
Bitcoin trades around $65,000–$66,500, showing technical weakness with RSI near 41 and signs of a downtrend. Near-term resistance sits near the 100-day moving average.
Elliott Wave Perspective
Technical analysts using Elliott Wave methodology see the major indices in the late stages of a rising Wave 5 — a structure that suggests a final acceleration before a significant correction. Price targets for the S&P 500 continue to point toward 7,620–7,700, but the persistent divergence between price and momentum, alongside weakening breadth, is raising concerns.
The Bottom Line
The market is at a crossroads. The Dow is at record highs, tech is under pressure, and the Fed enters a new chapter under Warsh. Technical traders are watching the 7,500 level on the S&P 500 closely: above it, bulls remain in control; below it, the risk of a deeper correction increases. The decision and Warsh's press conference could set the tone for the coming weeks.
