The first trading day of the week opened with a massive gap-up after President Trump's Sunday announcement of a completed peace agreement with Iran — including the toll-free reopening of the Strait of Hormuz — triggered a global relief rally.
The Nasdaq Composite led with a 3% surge to 26,667. The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 1.4% to a new all-time high of 51,922. The S&P 500 added 1.95% to close at 7,576.
From a technical perspective, the gap-up matters for several reasons. First, it came alongside a 7.5% VIX collapse to 16.35 — a historically low level signaling high investor complacency. Second, the Nasdaq's clear outperformance over the Dow and S&P indicates aggressive risk-on positioning typical of a decisive sentiment shift.
Why it matters
Today's rally is not just an emotional reaction to headlines. The US-Iran peace deal reshapes the macro backdrop in a tangible way. Vice President Vance confirmed the administration expects the Strait of Hormuz to remain open toll-free long-term. That removes a major bottleneck from global supply chains and eases inflationary pressure at the source.
Lower oil prices for a sustained period give the Fed room to hold rates steady even if core inflation doesn't fall as fast as hoped. Fed funds futures now price a 98%+ probability of unchanged rates through year-end.
Oil itself had a technical crash day: Brent crude fell 5.3% to $82.71, breaking through key support levels and entering bear-market territory from its wartime highs above $100. The question now is whether $80 holds. From a wave perspective, oil's decline from war-induced highs fits a complex ABC correction pattern, with wave C still in progress.
Technical levels in focus
Today's gap-up places the Nasdaq above 26,500 — a historic resistance level tested multiple times in recent months. In Elliott Wave terms, tech indices appear to be in an extended Wave 3 of the move that began in December 2025. Today's gap could serve as a "measurement gap" — a continuation gap, not an exhaustion gap — suggesting further upside before the wave completes.
The S&P 500 closed near 7,600. That level now becomes near-term support. The index retains its established uptrend channel from the October 2023 lows, with today's move confirming the upper boundary remains intact.
The Dow's new all-time high at 51,922 is a psychological milestone. The blue-chip index has been lagging the Nasdaq on a relative basis, and today's breakout — while real — did not match the magnitude of tech's move. That divergence itself is something technicians will be watching: leadership rotation or just catching up.
Stock-level moves
SpaceX (SPCX) added another 8.6% to $174.81 after surging 19% on its public debut Friday — a cumulative 25%+ in two days. For an IPO of this scale ($85.7 billion greenshoe exercised), the move is extraordinary. Technicians caution the stock is now extended on RSI, making a near-term pullback likely. The open question is whether Wave 3 is still extending, or whether the first corrective move lower is imminent.
Robinhood (HOOD) rose 8% to $100.64 on analyst expectations that the World Cup will significantly boost prediction-market revenue. The stock is testing $100 — a critical psychological and technical resistance level.
Fox Corp (FOX) dropped 14.8% on its $22 billion acquisition of Roku. The breakdown occurred below $55, and the stock now trades below both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, signaling continued technical weakness.
Bitcoin bounced 5% to $67,100, though analysts warn it may be a "dead-cat bounce" in an ongoing bear trend. The cryptocurrency remains below its 200-day moving average, with $70,000 as the next major resistance.
Global picture
The rally was far from a US-only story. Japan's Nikkei surged 5%, South Korea's Kospi jumped 5.2%, and China's Shenzhen index rose 3.8%. European indices posted more modest but still positive gains. This synchronous global rally is classic macro-driven price action — not a narrow sector story.
The bottom line
Today delivered a textbook relief rally — a sharp move higher driven by the removal of extreme uncertainty. The opening gap is significant, but the market now needs to prove it can hold these levels. From a technical standpoint, all eyes are on S&P 7,600 (nearly hit at the close) and Nasdaq 26,700. The big question for the rest of the week: does the rally persist into Friday's formal signing in Geneva, or do we correct back to fill the gap?
With Fed rate decision week underway and the G7 summit starting, the macro calendar couldn't be more supportive for continued technical momentum. But gaps of this magnitude tend to invite at least partial filling — the question is timing.
