The S&P 500 closed the last trading session of the week at a fresh all-time high of 7,580.06, completing an eight-week winning streak — the longest since late 2023. Among Elliott Wave analysts and technical traders on X, the conversation centers on a single question: is Wave 5 of the impulse rally from the March low approaching its end?
Why it matters
The current rally from the March 31 low near 6,318 has traced out a textbook five-wave impulsive structure, according to multiple Elliott Wave counts. Wave 5 is now in progress and may represent the final leg before a meaningful correction. For traders, this means defining exit levels rather than chasing aggressive new entries.
What the analysts are saying
Several accounts on X are weighing in on the wave structure. @MMatters22596, an Elliott Wave-focused account, notes that the market is in the advanced stages of Wave 5 with potential upside toward 7,600-7,700, but also warns of warning signs: bearish divergence on daily momentum indicators is beginning to appear, a hallmark of maturing impulse waves.
The eight-week winning streak is the longest in more than two years, and the data is not lost on technical traders. The RSI(14) sits near 64.5 — a buy zone that is not quite overbought, but significantly lower than the readings seen at earlier cycle highs. Some analysts interpret this as a signal that the rally is becoming less broad-based, relying on fewer leading names — a pattern consistent with the late stages of an impulse wave.
Falling oil prices over the past week provided additional tailwinds for equities, and several technical analysts note that commodities may be the external factor that determines the next wave direction. A sharp reversal in oil could pressure markets just as technical momentum begins to fade.
On individual stocks, @AsafNaamani, an active technical analyst, tracks several setups. $SMCI shows a weekly chart pattern worth monitoring. $KTOS was flagged as a "new trade to watch" after completing a corrective wave structure. $FSLR is in a long-term wave setup nearing a potential breakout, and $KEEL, after surging 88% since May 1, received an important target update.
@MMatters22596 identifies opportunities in defense names: $ONDS was called an "overlooked setup" preparing for a significant move, while $SOFI is viewed as undervalued near $18 with a projected upside to $35 or more.
At the index level, $AVGO scored a rare perfect technical rating (10/10) on Chartmill, with a breakout setup nearing completion. $META also shows a strong breakout setup. The Nasdaq continues to lead, supported by semiconductor and tech names.
Key levels
Technical analyses highlight several critical levels:
Resistance: The current high at 7,580; technical targets at 7,600-7,700 if Wave 5 continues to extend.
Immediate support: 7,565-7,550; the 50-day moving average near 7,496; deeper support near 7,200.
According to Elliott Wave forecasts, a correction following Wave 5 completion could target the 6,100-6,280 range in the more bearish counts, though shallower pullbacks of 3-7% are seen as the more probable scenario.
The bottom line
The technical chatter this evening reveals a relatively broad consensus: the current rally is legitimate and impulsive, but it is approaching a natural endpoint. Wave analysts and technicians advise tight risk management, adherence to defined support levels, and a focus on setting exit targets rather than new entries. The broader structure remains bullish as long as the March 31 low near 6,318 holds — but the big question is no longer whether a correction will come, but when and how deep.
