The last trading session of the week, Friday May 22, saw major indices close near their highs — and Monday May 25 is a quiet day on Wall Street with U.S. markets closed for Memorial Day. But even without trading, the technical conversation centers on one question: how much fuel is left in the current rally?

The S&P 500 (SPY) closed Friday at $745.64, just 0.34% below the three-month high of $748.17. The index posted a weekly gain of 0.95%, extending a rally that started in early March — roughly 18% from the March low around $632.

Key Levels to Watch on the S&P 500

The critical level from a technical perspective is $750. A decisive SPY breakout above $750 on meaningful volume could open the door to the $770–$780 range. Conversely, a failure to clear $750 would likely bring the $740 support level back into focus. If that breaks, the $730 area — tested successfully on May 19 — becomes the next key reference.

SPY is trading roughly 7.5% above its 50-day moving average ($693) and 7.6% above its 200-day MA ($693). While this spread signals strong bullish momentum, it's historically stretched and raises questions about near-term sustainability.

Nasdaq Leads, Small Caps Play Catch-Up

The most notable theme over the past month has been the growing divergence between indices. The Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) surged 10.15% in the last month, compared to just 2.72% for the Dow Jones (DIA) and 3.48% for the Russell 2000 (IWM). But last week brought an interesting shift: IWM gained 3.3% for the week, fueled by strength in names like Rocket Lab (RKLB +8.22% on Friday) and AMD (+3.99%).

The technical signal here: small caps are seen as a catch-up trade, and their upward movement can signal broadening of the rally beyond the narrow mega-cap group.

NVDA: Post-Earnings Weakness Lingers

Nvidia (NVDA) continued to lose ground Friday, closing at $215.33 — a weekly decline of 3.1%. The pre-earnings run-up above $222 (May 18) has been fully erased, and the stock is now trading near its 50-day moving average. Critical support: $210. A breakdown below that level could send the stock back to test the $200–$205 zone.

Interestingly, while NVDA softens, AMD has surged 53% in a month — a dramatic move suggesting capital rotation into AI alternatives.

TSLA Bounces, AAPL at All-Time Highs

Tesla (TSLA) posted a weekly gain of 3.9%, closing at $426 — a solid recovery from the $400 area, which continues to serve as technical support. The path higher requires a move above $430, with the next target around $450.

Apple (AAPL) is breaking records, with a weekly gain of 3.7% to $308.8 — uncharted territory. AAPL's 13% monthly gain makes it one of the primary drivers of the S&P 500 rally.

Volatility and Rates

The VIX fell to 16.59 on Friday — a relatively low reading that reflects comfort with the current trend, but also carries the risk of a sharp volatility spike if a correction materializes. Levels at or below 16 have historically been unsustainable during sharp rallies.

The 10-year Treasury yield sits at 4.56%, up roughly 25 basis points since the start of May. Rapid yield increases remain a risk factor for growth stocks, particularly in the tech sector.

Macro Week Ahead

Fed rate-cut probabilities for June remain low (around 10–15%), making any Fed speaker comments this week highly relevant. Relative calm around ceasefire developments in the Middle East and Ukraine has supported risk appetite. The Stoxx 600 (SXXP) is approaching all-time highs, signaling broad global momentum.

The Bottom Line

The technical picture shows a market approaching levels where risk awareness matters — low volatility, stretched distance from moving averages, and a broad cluster of stocks in overbought territory. On the other hand, momentum is positive, small caps are joining the rally, and there is no definitive reversal signal yet. The $750 level on the S&P 500 will be the key reference for the week ahead — both for upside potential and for risk management.