Friday's session closed modestly higher, but the conversation among technical analysts and wave traders continued through the weekend — centered on one question: how much further can this rally run?
The major indices logged fresh closing highs on Friday. The S&P 500 gained 0.37% to 7,473.47, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 294 points (0.58%) to a record close of 50,579.70, and the Nasdaq Composite added 0.19% to 26,343.97. All three finished in the green, though they closed off their intraday highs.
The stat dominating trader chatter: eight consecutive up weeks — the longest streak since late 2023. Historical data shows this has happened only about 20 times since 1950.
What the analysts are saying
Elliott Wave analysis published over the weekend paints a consistent picture from multiple angles: the S&P 500 is in the advanced stages of a wave 5 impulse that began at the late-March 2026 low. Analysts at ActionForex describe a five-subwave structure, with wave ((v)) nearing potential completion.
On the bearish side, an Investing.com analysis warns this final wave carries terminal characteristics — a fifth wave showing signs of exhaustion. The authors point to negative divergence in the advance-decline line since mid-April, a classic hallmark of an aging wave 5. Their outlook includes a significant correction targeting roughly 6,100 ± 200.
More bullish voices highlight the breadth supporting this rally: rotation into small-caps, micro-caps, REITs, energy, and value. "It's the everything market," as Interactive Brokers chief strategist Steve Sosnick described it — the market pricing in a potential Middle East ceasefire alongside ongoing economic momentum.
Individual stocks: TSLA shines, NVDA pulls back
Tesla (TSLA) drew attention after gaining 1.95% to close at $426, finishing near the top of its session range. Analysts flagged resistance at $440; a clean break above that level could open a path toward $455–$460. Nearby support sits at $405–$410.
Nvidia (NVDA) fell 1.9% to $215, following choppy post-earnings action. The medium-term technical structure remains constructive — the stock had broken upward from a horizontal trend channel and completed a measured-move target near $235. The pullback reads as consolidation rather than a structural breakdown.
Amazon (AMZN) edged down 0.8% to $266, but held comfortably above its key moving averages with technical systems still signaling a strong buy.
The week ahead
It's a shortened holiday week (U.S. markets closed Monday for Memorial Day), but the macro calendar is heavy. Thursday brings the core PCE price index — the Fed's preferred inflation gauge — with economists expecting 3.3%. A packed Fed speaker lineup includes Chair Kevin Warsh, John Williams, Austan Goolsbee, and Neel Kashkari.
Earnings from Marvell Technology (MRVL), Salesforce (CRM), Costco (COST), Dell (DELL), and Snowflake (SNOW) will provide fresh data points on AI spending, enterprise demand, and consumer health.
The bottom line
Eight consecutive up weeks create an unmistakable euphoric atmosphere, but the technical analysts are divided: some see a terminating wave 5 with correction risk building, while others point to constructive chart structures and broad rotation supporting further upside. The week ahead — with PCE, Fed commentary, and tech earnings — may provide the answer.
