The last trading day of the week opened mixed on Thursday, with S&P 500 futures down ~0.4% and Nasdaq futures slipping ~0.6% on the back of a muted post-earnings reaction to Nvidia. The Dow is struggling to hold momentum after Wednesday's 645-point surge, which pushed the index above 50,000 for the first time.
NVDA: Textbook "Sell the News"
Nvidia reported record Q1 revenue of $81.6 billion after Wednesday's close, with Q2 guidance of $91 billion — yet the stock slipped ~1% in after-hours trading. Among day traders, the reaction is classic "shrug": expectations were so elevated that even a beat of this size couldn't generate follow-through buying.
Options data tells the story. Gamma Exposure (GEX) shows NVDA trading well above its flip point (~$190.74), in positive gamma territory, creating a stabilizing effect that dampens sharp intraday moves. The post-earnings IV crush — a pattern that has held 23 out of 25 times since 2020 — favors premium sellers and range traders over directional breakout players.
Still, about $5.6 billion traded in short-dated NVDA options this week, with an unusual upside skew where calls traded richer than puts — a signal some traders were positioning for a strong move higher. In practice, the morning-after session shows NVDA chopping around the $223–224 zone.
OpEx Friday: Defense First
Today is monthly options expiration (OpEx), and the flow data reflects a protective posture. QQQ's put-call ratio sits at 1.43 — more puts than calls — with standout volume on today's 575 and 600 puts.
SPY shows a similar pattern: the May 21 694 put has a Vol/OI ratio of 231, suggesting significant institutional hedging flows into the close.
The bottom line for day traders: nobody is expecting fireworks this week. They're guarding positions and waiting. VIX around 17.7–17.9 suggests moderate but not high volatility — enough to trade but not enough for large directional scalp profits.
Walmart and Deere Weigh
Walmart posted in-line Q1 EPS of $0.66 this morning, but the stock dropped ~2% in early trading on a cautious Q2 outlook. The reaction feeds into broader concerns about consumer spending that day traders are watching alongside the rate path.
Deere also matched top-line expectations, but the stock traded choppily on tariff exposure and agricultural cycle risks.
Oil and Geopolitics: The Wild Card
WTI crude is trading around $99–101 a barrel, following yesterday's $2.65 plunge driven by diplomatic optimism around Middle East tensions and the Strait of Hormuz. That sharp drop in oil — combined with a 9-basis-point decline in the 10-year yield to 4.57% — was the engine behind the Dow's 50K breakout and the Russell 2000's 2%+ rally.
But volatility cuts both ways. Iran's supreme leader recently made remarks on uranium enrichment that sent oil up more than 2%. Day traders remain hyper-sensitive to every headline — oil remains the session's biggest swing factor.
Quantum: The Volatility Zone
Quantum names — IONQ, QBTS, RGTI — remain the go-to for high-beta day trades after a mid-May profit-taking pullback (IONQ down ~7%, QBTS ~8% on May 18). The potential for 5–10% intraday swings continues to attract momentum traders. Behind the moves: IonQ's government contracts with DARPA and the Space Development Agency, and D-Wave's new U.S. government unit.
Bottom Line
OpEx Friday with contradictory forces: the Dow celebrates 50K while the Nasdaq retreats on an NVDA "sell the news" reaction. Walmart adds a macro caution flag. Day traders are focused on options hedging and targeted scalps — NVDA at $222–223 support, oil in the $99–101 band, and quantum names for those chasing volatility. The big picture: a market catching its breath before the next move.
