Commodities saw broad selling pressure this week, with crude sliding to three-month lows, gold struggling to recover from its sharp 2026 correction, and grains trading at their lowest levels of the year.

Oil: Hormuz Reopening Sinks Prices

Brent crude traded around $79-80/barrel and WTI around $75-76/barrel on Friday, putting the week on track for a roughly 9% decline — the lowest in over three months.

The catalyst: resumed maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz following a temporary ceasefire agreement. The strait, through which roughly 20% of global oil consumption flows, was effectively shut for months amid tensions with Iran. Now that shipping has resumed, a significant portion of the disrupted supply is flowing back to market.

"The world is about to absorb a flood of oil leaving the strait," wrote Javier Blas, Bloomberg's energy columnist, who has been tracking the developments closely. Blas highlighted this week that China played a key role as a "swing importer" — slashing crude imports dramatically during the crisis, which prevented an even sharper price spike.

Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank, noted that while the near-term outlook is negative for oil, the inventories depleted during the crisis (over 80 million barrels in the US alone) provide a floor. "Rebuilding stocks will take time. Pre-crisis levels of $60-70 are unlikely to return quickly."

The US Energy Information Administration reported a 1.2 million barrel draw in crude inventories for the week ended June 13, exceeding the market consensus for a 700,000 barrel decline. That inventories continue to drain even as supply returns points to relatively steady demand.

Gold: Below $4,200 on Hawkish Rate Outlook

Gold traded around $4,140-4,160/oz on Friday, down roughly 1.3% on the day. The yellow metal remains about 25% below its all-time high of $5,600/oz set in January 2026.

The main story is the shift in interest rate expectations. Strong US economic data — particularly the labor market — has pushed rate-cut expectations to the margins, and markets are now pricing in the possibility of a rate hike by year-end. That directly pressures gold, a non-yielding asset.

Structural central bank demand continues to provide a floor. According to the World Gold Council, Q1 2026 net central bank purchases totaled 244 tonnes, up 3% year over year. Poland and China led the charge, with China accelerating purchases notably in March-April.

Mike McGlone of Bloomberg Intelligence noted that gold, silver, platinum, and palladium have all given back their year-to-date gains — a "pump and dump" pattern he warns may extend to crude oil and equities.

Saxo Bank's Hansen noted that gold needs to reclaim its 200-day moving average at $4,458 to signal a real recovery. Until then, near-term momentum remains negative.

Grains: Ample Supply Caps Upside

Grain markets traded at their lowest levels of the year. Corn has fallen roughly 12% in the past month to $4.17-4.18/bushel. Wheat traded around $6.06/bushel and soybeans around $11.22-11.32/bushel.

Large carry-in stocks from the 2025/26 season continue to weigh on the market, and favorable growing conditions across most US regions are easing supply concerns.

The USDA's latest crop progress report showed 68% of US corn rated good-to-excellent, close to the multi-year average. Early June rainfall has eased drought conditions in parts of the Midwest and South, though dryness persists in parts of the Northern Plains.

The bottom line for grain markets: crops remain sensitive to summer weather, but until conditions deteriorate meaningfully, supply overhang dominates the equation. Analysts note the market likely needs a material weather event in the coming weeks to justify a price rally.

The Bottom Line

Commodity markets are in broad bearish territory this week across nearly every sector. Oil is enjoying a geopolitical relief rally in reverse but could find a floor from depleted inventories. Gold is battling a negative macro backdrop while supported by structural central bank buying. Grains — for now — remain under pressure from ample supply. The coming weeks will tell whether this is a correction or a deeper trend reversal.