Commodity markets are trading in mixed territory this Friday, May 29 — crude oil steady around $88.5 after Bernstein published a $75 long-term price target, gold grinding higher above $4,550, and agricultural commodities showing no clear direction.

Oil: Stability into the Weekend

WTI crude futures (CL=F) are trading at $88.58, up 0.47% from yesterday's close. Brent crude is flat around $93.78. The market is digesting a research note from Bernstein published yesterday, which set a long-term oil price target of $75 per barrel.

Bernstein analyst Neil Beveridge noted that the global marginal cost of oil production is projected to rise to $77 per barrel, after a slight decline to $69 in 2025, as cost inflation feeds back into the energy supply chain. Meanwhile, the industry's average reserve life has dropped to a 20-year low of 10.4 years — well below the historical average of 13 years. This shrinking long-term supply buffer provides a structurally bullish floor for crude prices.

The industry's reinvestment ratio has recovered to 61%, up from a trough of 36% in 2022, but remains well below the historical 80%-90% average. The sector is cautious about adding new capacity amid uncertainty over long-term demand driven by the clean energy transition and EV adoption.

In other energy news: the US has again extended the deadline for Lukoil's global asset sale; Mitsui is exploring global LNG investments to power the AI data center boom; and Norway raised its oil and gas investment forecasts for 2026-2027.

Gold and Silver: Modest Gains

Gold futures (GC=F) are trading at $4,554.5 per ounce, up 0.52%. Spot gold on Kitco is at $4,524 with a daily range of $4,488-$4,527. Silver (SI=F) is flat at $75.78, up just 0.04%, with a daily range of $75.11-$76.56.

Precious metals continue to benefit from a supportive macro backdrop: ongoing monetary policy uncertainty, steady central bank buying, and relative dollar softness. The narrow daily ranges suggest the market is awaiting a clearer catalyst for directional moves.

Natural Gas: Slight Uptick

Natural gas futures (NG=F) are trading at $3.32, up 0.76%. Related headlines: Uniper, the German energy giant, has warned that Germany could face gas shortages this winter if storage injection rates don't accelerate. Separately, Japan's Mitsui is scouting global LNG investment opportunities to secure electricity supply for AI data centers, pointing to a new demand vector for natural gas.

Agricultural Commodities: Mixed

Agricultural commodities are mixed: corn (ZC=F) is down 0.22% at $454.75, wheat (ZW=F) is up 0.56% at $625.25, and soybeans (ZS=F) are flat at $1,199.75. The market is awaiting fresh supply-demand data, with North American growing-season weather conditions remaining the key variable.

What to Watch

Bernstein recommends monitoring the industry's ability to increase reinvestment in new capacity. If the reinvestment ratio fails to return to historical levels, periodic market tightness and higher spot prices are expected. Additionally, the Atlantic hurricane season could impact Gulf of Mexico oil and gas infrastructure in the coming months.

The Bottom Line

Commodity markets are trading without a clear one-way direction today, but Bernstein's analysis serves as an important reminder: the physical infrastructure of the oil market is shrinking, which may support a higher price floor over the long term. Gold maintains positive momentum but lacks a near-term catalyst for a breakout move.