Wall Street is gearing up for the first trading session of Q3 with futures pointing modestly lower, the Dow down about 155 points (–0.3%), the S&P 500 off roughly 0.25%, and the Nasdaq similarly lower, following a blockbuster Q2 that saw the S&P 500 notch its best quarterly performance since the post-COVID recovery.
The main standout in pre-market trading is Nike (NKE), which reported better-than-expected fiscal Q4 results after Tuesday's close. The athletic giant posted EPS of $0.20 versus $0.13 consensus estimates, while revenue came in at $10.97 billion, also ahead of expectations. The stock is popping in early trading, reflecting cautious optimism that the beat could mark a turning point after a prolonged period of pressure. However, regional headwinds remain, notably in Greater China, where sales fell 12% year-over-year.
Economic data on tap
Two key data releases are scheduled today. The ADP National Employment Report for June (8:15 AM ET) is expected to show 118,000 private-sector jobs added, down slightly from 122,000 in May. At 10:00 AM ET, the ISM Manufacturing PMI for June is due, with a consensus of 53.8, indicating a fifth consecutive month of expansion in the sector.
The data comes against a backdrop of elevated uncertainty. CNN's Fear & Greed Index sits at 31 this morning, firmly in "fear" territory, driven by lingering geopolitical risks in the Middle East and trade policy headwinds.
Earnings calendar
General Mills (GIS) reports its fiscal Q4 results before the open, with analysts expecting revenue of around $4.6 billion and EPS of $0.81. FactSet Research Systems (FDS) is also on the calendar, with Q3 EPS estimated at $4.45. MSC Industrial Direct (MSM) and UniFirst (UNF) round out the morning's earnings lineup.
The Q2 2026 earnings season is entering its final stretch, but individual reports are still moving stocks.
Macro backdrop
Yesterday's close was a fitting end to a historic quarter. The S&P 500 rose roughly 15% in Q2, its strongest performance since Q2 2020, while the Nasdaq surged 21%. The Dow added 13%. The rally was powered by the AI and semiconductor boom, with the PHLX Semiconductor Index soaring about 70% in the quarter.
But the gains were concentrated. Mega-cap tech names accounted for a disproportionate share of the advance, while cyclical and value sectors lagged behind.
Oil watch
WTI crude is trading around $69.70 per barrel, extending a sharp 25% monthly decline driven by the US-Iran ceasefire agreement that reopened the Strait of Hormuz. The combination of easing geopolitical risk and demand concerns from tariff-related economic headwinds keeps oil under pressure.
This week is shortened by the July 4 holiday on Friday, which may thin trading volumes in the coming days.
