Wall Street is set to open higher on Monday after a weekend of de-escalation between the US and Iran. Futures point to a positive open: the Nasdaq-100 is leading with a gain of roughly 1% (about 290 points), the S&P 500 is adding approximately 0.7%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 0.35%.
The optimism follows renewed tit-for-tat strikes over the weekend, the US carrying out additional attacks after an oil tanker was struck near the Strait of Hormuz, but crucially, both sides agreed to halt hostilities and resume technical talks on the framework deal signed in mid-June. The June 17 Memorandum of Understanding, brokered with Qatar and Pakistan, includes reopening the Strait of Hormuz, US sanctions waivers allowing Iranian oil exports, and a 60-day ceasefire extension to negotiate a final nuclear agreement.
The Week Ahead, Heavy Data and H1 Close
This is a dense week on the economic calendar. Tuesday marks the close of H1 2026 and brings the S&P Case-Shiller home price index, June consumer confidence, and the JOLTS job openings report for May. Wednesday features the ADP employment report and the ISM manufacturing index. The highlight of the week is the June nonfarm payrolls report, due Thursday, shifted from its usual Friday slot ahead of the July 4 holiday. Markets are expected to close early on Friday.
Last week ended with notable volatility. The S&P 500 fell 2.0% over the week, posting five consecutive daily declines, the longest losing streak since August of last year. The Nasdaq Composite dropped 4.6%, driven by a tech sell-off fueled by stretched AI valuations, quarter-end portfolio rebalancing, and margin calls. The Dow, by contrast, managed a modest 0.6% weekly gain on rotation into defensive names.
Oil is trading around $70/barrel for WTI, a sharp decline from the $120+ peaks reached during the height of the Iran conflict, as expectations of resumed Iranian exports and the Strait of Hormuz reopening remove the geopolitical risk premium that had been embedded in crude prices.
Stocks in Focus
Big tech is expected to lead the bounce this morning. Apple (AAPL), which closed Friday at $283.78 (+3.14%), remains in focus after reports of broad price hikes across its product lineup and a push for US approval to source Chinese memory chips. Nvidia (NVDA) closed at $192.53 last week and is recovering in pre-market trading amid broad semiconductor optimism. Tesla (TSLA) is hovering around $379–380 with no company-specific catalyst, moving in sympathy with the broader risk-on tone.
Nike reports quarterly results on Thursday in what is a generally light earnings week. The bigger driver for stock-level moves this week will likely be macro data and geopolitical headlines.
Oil-sensitive sectors, energy, airlines, and industrials, are also in focus as traders assess whether the ceasefire holds and Iranian supply returns to global markets.
The Bottom Line
Wall Street is opening the last week of June and the first half of 2026 with cautious optimism. The futures rally reflects relief that the US-Iran escalation has paused, but the macro calendar is heavy: a jobs report, ISM data, consumer confidence, and the quarterly rebalance could all produce surprises. The path from here depends on whether the diplomatic track holds and whether upcoming data confirms the soft-landing narrative, or challenges it.
