Wall Street heads into Thursday's session with cautious optimism, as futures point to a modest rebound after one of the worst trading days of the year.
S&P 500 futures are up about 0.4%, Nasdaq-100 futures gain 0.7%, and Dow futures add 0.3% — signaling that buyers may step in after yesterday's sharp selloff.
SpaceX IPO: History in the Making
The biggest story of the day — and arguably the year — is the SpaceX IPO pricing. The company is expected to set a price of $135 per share, valuing it at roughly $1.77 trillion. That makes it the largest IPO in history by a wide margin.
SpaceX is offering approximately 555 million shares, aiming to raise about $75 billion. Trading on the Nasdaq under ticker SPCX will begin tomorrow (Friday). The offering is reportedly multiple times oversubscribed, with institutional investors and sovereign wealth funds showing exceptional demand.
The IPO is a potential market-wide catalyst, with implications for sentiment around tech stocks, the broader risk appetite, and any Elon Musk-related names.
Geopolitics and Oil: Iran Tensions Boil Over
Tensions in the Middle East remain elevated. The US conducted fresh strikes on Iranian targets overnight, following the downing of a US Apache helicopter. This has reignited fears about supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20% of global oil flows.
Oil prices extended their gains this morning: WTI crude trades near $89/barrel, while Brent hovers around $92 — up roughly 1% in the past 24 hours. Energy stocks are set to benefit, but rising oil prices add to inflation concerns and weigh on the broader market mood.
Yesterday's Bloodbath
Wednesday was brutal across the board:
- The S&P 500 fell 1.62% to 7,267
- The Dow dropped ~1.9% (953 points)
- The Nasdaq Composite lost roughly 2%
Tech and semiconductor stocks led the decline, alongside geopolitical fears and mixed inflation data that rattled investor confidence.
Data Watch: PPI and Jobless Claims
Two key releases land at 8:30 AM ET:
- May Producer Price Index (PPI): Headline MoM expected at +0.7% (vs +1.4% prior), with YoY at +6.4%. Core PPI (ex-food & energy) seen rising 0.4% MoM.
- Initial Jobless Claims: Expected at 220K, down from 225K the prior week.
These numbers carry extra weight this week, as markets try to gauge whether inflation pressures are easing enough to influence the Fed's next policy moves.
Earnings on Tap
After the close today:
- Adobe (ADBE) reports Q2 fiscal 2026 results, with EPS consensus around $5.81.
- Lennar (LEN) posts Q2 earnings, expected EPS of roughly $1.24, offering a read on the US housing market.
The Bottom Line
This morning the market is catching its breath after a volatile session, with all eyes on the SpaceX pricing — a once-in-a-generation financial event. In the meantime, PPI and jobless claims data will set the tone for the trading day, especially if they shift expectations around the Fed's rate path.
