Wall Street enters Wednesday with a "calm before the storm" feel. All three major indices closed lower on Tuesday — the S&P 500 at 7,353.61 (-0.67%), the Nasdaq at 25,870.71 (-0.84%), and the Dow at 49,363.88 (-0.65%) — and futures this morning are hovering near flat to slightly negative.
The main event: Nvidia (NVDA) reports Q1 FY2027 earnings after today's closing bell. Analysts expect roughly 79% year-over-year revenue growth, driven by accelerating Blackwell GPU deployments in data centers. Options markets are pricing in a 7%+ swing in the stock following the release. NVDA closed Tuesday at $220.61, down 0.77% heading into the report.
Why It Matters
Nvidia's earnings are the single most important event of the current tech earnings season. With a market cap north of $5.3 trillion, any outsized move in the stock ripples through the Nasdaq, the semiconductor index (SOX), and investor sentiment across the entire tech sector.
At 2:00 PM ET, the Fed releases the minutes from its April 28-29 meeting, where the committee held rates steady at 3.50%-3.75%. The surprise: four committee members dissented — three objected to the statement's dovish tilt while one voted for an immediate rate cut. That's the highest number of dissenting votes since October 1992, reflecting a deeply divided FOMC on the path forward.
Market Chatter This Morning
The conversation this morning revolves around three main themes:
Nvidia and the print — Expectations are sky-high, and investors are bracing for volatility. CEO Jensen Huang recently telegraphed massive demand for AI inference workloads and highlighted long-term opportunities in robotics and physical AI.
Bond yields climbing — The 30-year Treasury yield crossed 5.18%, its highest since 2007. The 10-year is trading around 4.67%. The sharp rise in yields is applying pressure to growth stocks, particularly in the technology sector.
Retail earnings double-header — Target (TGT) and Lowe's (LOW) both report Q1 results this morning. Target is expected to post EPS of roughly $1.41 on $24.5 billion in revenue. Lowe's is forecast at $2.97 EPS on $22.95 billion in revenue. Both reports will provide a real-time read on the American consumer.
What Else Is Moving
Tesla (TSLA) closed Tuesday at $404.11, down 1.43%. Elon Musk lost his lawsuit against OpenAI this week after a jury unanimously rejected his claims. Separately, the company raised prices on some U.S. Model Y trims — the first price hike in two years.
Micron (MU) is down 2.56% in premarket trading with no major headlines. Semiconductor stocks broadly are in wait-and-see mode ahead of Nvidia's report.
Analog Devices (ADI) also reports this morning, alongside the retail heavyweights.
The Bottom Line
Today shapes up as one of the busiest sessions of the month. The combination of Nvidia earnings, a fractured Fed minutes release, and climbing bond yields creates a volatility cocktail. Investors are heading into a morning of heightened caution, with the near-term direction likely determined in after-hours trading.
