The technical conversation on X today centers on a pivotal moment for the S&P 500: following a zigzag correction that bottomed at $716.55, the SPY appears to be in the early stages of Wave 3 to the upside. In midday trading today, the index is changing hands around the 7,490-7,505 range, reflecting positive momentum tempered by typical summer caution.
What the Analysts Are Saying
Elliott Wave analysis points to an impulsive structure emerging from the March 2026 low. Wave (1) topped at $760.4, followed by a corrective Wave (2) that unfolded as a classic zigzag, Wave A to $721.23, Wave B to $756.68, and Wave C to the $716.55 low. From that trough, SPY has turned higher in Wave (3), with sub-wave ((i)) peaking at $739.89 and sub-wave ((ii)) pulling back to $732.09.
The critical level: a decisive break above $760.4 would confirm trend resumption and open the path toward higher Wave (3) targets. As long as price holds above $716.55, dips are expected to find support in three or seven-swing patterns.
Bank of America's global head of technical strategy, Paul Ciana, offers a counterweight: a TD Sequential "Red 13" signal is flashing, and technical tension points to a potential abc correction in Q3. BofA sees support at 7,122 with a worst-case downside to 6,850. The bank recommends adding hedges on rallies, noting that momentum is weakening even as the index prints near highs.
The picture is mixed. SPY moving averages flash "Strong Buy" (12 buy signals, 0 sell), and RSI sits near 66, healthy territory not yet overbought. But the Stochastic is at elevated levels, and caution signals suggest potential divergence on the horizon.
Stocks in Focus
AMD, The technical community is buzzing about AMD's breakout to an all-time high. The stock closed June at $580.91, surging 7.68% on massive volume of 34.4 million shares. Intraday today shows modest profit-taking around $550-565, normal after such a powerful move. The critical support level: $550. The breakout above the $50 resistance confirmed bullish trend continuation.
DDOG (Datadog), Trading near $260, close to all-time highs. The stock showed a successful breakout from a multi-year cup-and-handle pattern, with next measured-move targets above $300.
PLTR (Palantir), Up roughly 9% today, but RSI sits at 75, overbought territory. Moving averages show 10 of 12 buy signals. The stock has strong momentum but is vulnerable to a technical pullback in the near term.
TSLA, Up 1.9% to $428, holding support in the $418-433 range. AAPL adds ~1.9% to $294.9, joining the positive tech momentum.
NVDA, The outlier: the AI leader that drove much of the rally is down 1.5% at $197, lagging the sector. The chatter notes rotation within the space as some capital shifts to other names.
Why It Matters
The market sits at a meaningful technical junction. The bullish narrative (Wave 3 emerging) and the cautious one (Q3 abc correction) create tension that will define trading in the coming days. Long-term moving averages (50, 100, 200-day) remain positive, but short-term oscillators are flirting with overbought levels. The decisive scenario: a breakout above $760.4 on SPY empowers the bulls; a breakdown below $716.55 gives the bears the upper hand.
The Bottom Line
Technical chatter on X is divided between Wave 3 optimism and warning signals from BofA and elevated Stochastics. AMD and DDOG provide bullish sector-level momentum, while PLTR signals short-term overheating. The session reflects a "buy the dip, cautious on the breakout" sentiment, summer will determine whether this is trend resumption or a complex correction en route to higher targets.
