The last trading day of the holiday-shortened week ended Thursday with the S&P 500 at 7,500.58 — roughly 1.6% below its all-time high of 7,621. Markets were closed Friday for Juneteenth. But the technical conversation kept running. From an Elliott Wave perspective, the core question dividing analysts this weekend: is this a Wave 3 extension still targeting 8,476, or is it time to start reducing exposure?

The week that ended delivered a 0.9% gain for the S&P 500 and 2.4% for the Nasdaq, reflected in QQQ at $740.62. The Dow hit an all-time high of 52,281.19 earlier in the week before closing at 51,564.70. Small-cap IWM traded around $295.59, still well below its record.

The structure: extension or exhaustion?

Analysts at elliottwave-forecast.com continue to frame the current move as Wave 3 within a larger impulsive structure that began in Q1 2026. Per their count, Wave 1 ended around 7,147–7,148, Wave 2 corrected to ~7,046, and the current Wave 3 is extending with internal sub-waves — including wave ((i)) to 7,517, wave ((ii)) pullback to 7,336, and wave ((iii)) advancing with near-term targets at 7,620 and beyond.

The critical level: 7,336. As long as the index holds above it, the impulsive count remains valid. The full long-term target for wave (3) sits around 8,476.

On the other side, analysts at Investing.com painted a nearly opposite picture. In their view, the move is completing a smaller five-wave structure, and the next phase is a corrective leg targeting the 6,840–7,075 range. Analyst Michael Filighera, who has a following in the technical community, has warned for several sessions that the market is nearing a significant top, with potential for a sharp correction that could eventually take the index into the 4,800–5,000 range over a longer timeframe.

Stocks in focus: NBIS and CRDO

Analyst MMatters22596 remained focused on asymmetric growth setups. Among his favorite names: NBIS (Nebius), which he sees in a bottoming range of $51–$91 with a long-term target of at least $438 — roughly 400% upside from current levels.

CRDO (Credo Technology) also stayed on his radar and in the broader technical conversation as an AI infrastructure play with potential for further upside. The stock trades around $271. The average analyst target — above $256 — has already been met, but some see further upside in the $190–$300 range.

Macro backdrop: Iran deal, the Fed, and SpaceX

The week was heavily shaped by the interim U.S.-Iran agreement, which reopened the Strait of Hormuz and sent oil prices to three-month lows. The Nasdaq surged 3% on the announcement day, and the Dow hit a new all-time high. The Fed's June 16–17 rate decision was largely uneventful, but markets continued digesting the implications.

SpaceX's historic IPO added positive momentum and renewed interest in tech stocks.

The bottom line

The market sits at a clear technical crossroads. Eleven winning weeks out of twelve is a powerful streak — but it's exactly the kind of run that makes cautious analysts look for signs of exhaustion. The 7,336 level on the S&P 500 is the red line for the bullish structure. As long as it holds, the bias is upward. A break below it could open the door to a correction lasting several weeks at minimum.