U.S. markets were closed Friday (June 19) for the Juneteenth holiday, but Thursday's trading session (June 18) painted a clear technical picture: the S&P 500 closed at 7,500.58, gaining 1.08% on the day, and continues to hold an impulsive Elliott Wave structure originating from the March 30 low.
The technical and wave analysis chatter circulating today revolves around a single question: does momentum have enough fuel to break toward 7,600–7,700, or will the index require another corrective leg first?
Wave Structure
Multiple Elliott Wave analysts point to an unfolding Wave 3 impulse from the March 30 low. The move began with Wave 1 completing around 7,148, a Wave 2 correction to the 7,047 low, and then Wave 3 began — now subdividing internally.
Within Wave 3, sub-wave ((i)) topped at 7,517, sub-wave ((ii)) found support at 7,336, and price surged to an intra-wave high above 7,620. The critical support remains the May 19 low of 7,336 (sub-wave ((ii))). As long as this level holds, the bullish structure remains valid.
The Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) presents a more mixed picture. The ETF is trading within a Wave 2 correction of a larger advance that began with a Wave 1 from $555 in March to $722. The current correction is expected to find support in the $733–$738 zone before Wave 3 resumes higher.
Individual Stocks
NVDA, trading around $210, shows a bullish impulsive structure. Technical analyses published in recent weeks point to a completed corrective phase around $205–$209, with intermediate targets of $257–$277 and a summer target near $305.
TSLA, near $400, is in the early stages of a larger bullish cycle according to wave analysis, with a potential long-term target of $774 as long as the January 2023 low holds.
On the independent analyst front, @MMatters22596 highlighted PYPL (PayPal) as a value play at a forward P/E of 14.35x, describing it as a potential multi-year bottom. @AsafNaamani continues to focus on technical breakouts and stocks clearing their 200-day moving average as bullish entry signals.
Key Levels Summary
- S&P 500: Must hold 7,336 to sustain the Wave 3 structure. Resistance at 7,600–7,620, then 7,650–7,700.
- QQQ: Corrective low expected in the $733–$738 zone before the next impulsive leg.
- NVDA: Support at $205–$209, targets at $257–$277 and $305.
- TSLA: Long-term target of $774, with near-term consolidation around $400.
The key question for next week: will momentum resume immediately when markets open on June 22, or will we see additional downside to solidify support levels first?
