U.S. markets closed the final trading day of the week with modest gains, buoyed by the SpaceX IPO debut and signs of a potential U.S.-Iran geopolitical deal. But beneath the surface, the technical conversation was far from settled.
After rallying to a high of 7,620 in early June, the S&P 500 pulled back and ended the week near 7,431 — a price zone that technical analysts say could produce significant moves in either direction. Here is what the technical community is watching heading into the weekend.
QQQ at a Crossroads: Bearish Right Shoulder or V-Shape?
Asaf Naamani described QQQ as being at "an interesting juncture" with two opposite potential outcomes — a V-shaped recovery or the formation of a bearish right shoulder suggesting a Head and Shoulders pattern. The implication: the Nasdaq's next directional move will be significant and likely set the intermediate-term tone.
Naamani also warned earlier this week that one of the biggest investing mistakes of 2026 has been "waiting for a crash" rather than participating in the market — a behavioral reminder that technical analysis, beyond the lines and levels, is also about market psychology.
OSCR and TSLA: Wave 5 Completion and Warnings
A notable signal from analyst @MMatters22596 this week pointed to Oscar Health (OSCR). According to the wave count, OSCR completed its Wave 5 target after a strong run and may be due for a pullback. The stock closed Friday at $28.26, down 2.25% on the day — consistent with a level where a bullish impulse has temporarily exhausted.
On Tesla, @MMatters22596 maintains a bearish Elliott Wave outlook, with a minimum target around $160 — a significant drop from Friday's close of $406. The call places TSLA at the center of a broader debate on mega-cap tech, with Q2 earnings flagged as a potential catalyst.
NVDA: Tight Levels Ahead of Next Week
NVIDIA closed Friday around $204-$205, with technical focus on the $207.50-$210 zone as the first resistance, while strong support sits in the $195-$200 range. The tight range between these levels suggests a breakout move is likely — in either direction.
Below $195, the next meaningful support lies around $183-$190, giving the stock more breathing room if sellers gain momentum.
The S&P 500 Wave Map
The aggregate Elliott Wave count describes an impulsive move from the late March 2026 low (around 6,350) as Wave 3 of a five-wave structure. Wave 1 ended near 7,148, Wave 2 corrected to around 7,047, and Wave 3 extended higher with nested sub-waves that reached the 7,621 peak.
The base case now calls for Wave 4 — a three-wave ABC correction — followed by Wave 5 and another attempt higher. But this scenario depends on holding the key support zone at 7,310-7,420. A break below that level would invalidate the count and could signal a larger-degree top.
The Bottom Line
This week's technical conversation straddles cautious optimism and a sense that the latest rally leg has matured. The SpaceX IPO added positive sentiment, and AI continues to be a central theme, but patterns like the potential QQQ Head and Shoulders and completed waves in OSCR serve as reminders that markets move in cycles, not straight lines. The weekend leaves the ball in the bulls' court: if support holds, the next wave could continue north. If not — the correction could deepen.
