Commodity markets opened sharply higher on Monday, led by a more than 4% surge in crude oil prices following a dramatic escalation between Iran and Israel over the weekend. On the other side of the spectrum, precious metals continued losing ground while agricultural commodities traded in mixed fashion.
Oil: Biggest daily spike in a month
WTI crude futures (July 2026) surged 4.19% to $94.33 per barrel, touching an intraday high of $94.93. Brent crude added 4.55% to $97.33. This is the largest one-day jump in about a month.
The trigger: Iran launched ballistic missiles at Israel on Sunday night — the first direct Iranian attack since a ceasefire in April. Israel retaliated within hours with airstrikes in western and central Iran, with reports of explosions in Tehran, Tabriz, and Isfahan.
President Trump, who had been pursuing a diplomatic breakthrough, urged Israel not to retaliate — but the strikes went ahead regardless. Markets are now pricing in a heightened risk of prolonged conflict, which could further delay the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
The Strait of Hormuz remains blocked for the fourth consecutive month, crippling a significant portion of Gulf state oil production. OPEC+ approved an additional 188,000 barrels per day of production for July on Sunday — the fourth consecutive increase — but analysts emphasize this is largely symbolic. "An OPEC+ production increase means very little while the Strait of Hormuz remains closed," a former OPEC official now at Rystad Energy said.
Crude benchmarks have added roughly $20 per barrel since the war began in late February, occasionally spiking above $100.
Precious metals: Gold and silver slide
In stark contrast to oil, gold continued its week-long decline. August gold futures fell 0.90% to $4,323.50 per ounce — the lowest level in about a month. The daily range spanned $4,293 to $4,377.5.
Silver posted an even steeper decline, dropping 2.75% to $67.23 per ounce after losing more than 11% in a single week. Platinum shed 2% to $1,761, and palladium lost 2.3% to $1,234.
The divergence between oil and precious metals suggests profit-taking in gold following an extended rally, alongside a strengthening dollar. The pattern highlights that commodities do not move in unison during geopolitical crises — oil responds directly to supply risk, while gold is influenced by broader macro factors.
Natural gas weakens; Copper steady
Natural gas fell 2.85% to $3.137, extending its recent downtrend on relatively high US storage levels and mild weather.
Copper was nearly flat, adding 0.14% to $6.30 per pound, as the market awaits clearer signals from the Chinese economy and industrial metals inventories.
Grains: Low volatility
Grain markets traded with low volatility. Corn slipped 0.06% to $417.25, wheat was flat at $580, and soybeans edged down 0.20% to $1,119.25. KC HRW wheat bucked the trend with a 0.68% gain — a signal of stronger demand for high-quality winter wheat.
The bottom line
The Iran-Israel escalation is the dominant event across commodity markets today, putting crude oil firmly back in the spotlight. The Strait of Hormuz remains locked, OPEC+ struggles to deliver real output increases, and geopolitical risk is only intensifying. Gold, meanwhile, is signaling that the market sees no urgent need for safe havens at current valuations. Traders will be closely watching diplomatic developments over the next 24 hours.
