Commodity markets saw sharp moves on Monday, with crude oil taking center stage: Brent crashed back below $100 for the first time in weeks, driven by weekend reports that a U.S.-Iran deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz is in its final stages.

Oil: A deal in sight, but not yet signed

Brent crude was trading at $98.27 a barrel, down more than 5%, as WTI fell to $91.63. Iranian news agency Tasnim reported that a memorandum of understanding is near completion, and that vessel traffic through the Strait could return to pre-war levels within 30 days of an agreement.

But President Trump quickly tempered expectations. In a social media post Sunday, he said he told his representatives "not to rush into a deal" and confirmed the U.S. blockade of Hormuz would remain until a final agreement is certified. A senior administration official told reporters no deal would be signed Sunday.

Despite the uncertainty, maritime traffic is slowly recovering. Two LNG carriers and a supertanker crossed the Strait of Hormuz in recent days — the tanker, loaded with Iraqi crude, headed for China. Abu Dhabi's ADNOC has been running its own tankers through the Strait in "dark mode" (transponders off) to move oil and gas. Still, over 100 tankers remain stranded in the area, according to Bloomberg data.

Gold extends rally

Gold, by contrast, is drawing safe-haven flows. Spot prices rose 1.23% to $4,564 an ounce, with a daily range of $4,533-$4,580. The move reflects persistent geopolitical uncertainty — even if an Iran deal is signed, its full economic impact will take time to play out.

Coking coal surges after China mine disaster

Coking coal prices jumped 8% on the Dalian Commodity Exchange to $186.76 per ton after a deadly gas explosion in a mine in Shanxi province killed 82 people — China's worst mining accident since 2009. Authorities launched an investigation and suspended operations at additional mines in the region, cutting daily coking coal output by an estimated 288,000 tons. Iron ore and steel prices also rose on supply disruption fears.

EU: Energy costs will stay high

The European Union revised its inflation forecasts to 3.1% in 2026 and 2.4% in 2027 — well above the previous 1.9% estimate — citing fallout from the Iran war. EU Economy Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis warned that energy inflation will "gradually trickle down to different sectors of the economy." ECB President Christine Lagarde cautioned that even if the conflict ended immediately, the economic aftershocks would persist for years.

The bottom line

Monday's commodities market captures a striking duality: optimism that Middle East tensions could ease is sending oil lower, yet gold is rising on the same uncertainty, not falling. The full picture will emerge only when — and if — a final Iran deal is signed. Until then, expensive energy is the new normal.