Oil prices surged more than 3% on Friday, May 15, 2026, driven by mounting concerns over supply disruptions in the Middle East. Brent crude, the international benchmark, closed at $109.26 per barrel, up $3.54 (+3.35%). WTI, the U.S. benchmark, rose to $105.42 per barrel, gaining $4.25 (+4.2%).

The gains come amid fears of disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz and lack of progress in U.S.-China talks aimed at ending the Iran conflict. Brent has risen more than 7.8% for the week, while WTI gained over 10%.

Gold Weakens

Gold futures closed in the $4,543–$4,570 per ounce range, down roughly 3% on the day after opening near $4,654. The metal extended losses for a second straight session following hotter-than-expected inflation data that reduced hopes for near-term rate cuts.

Agricultural Commodities Decline

July corn futures fell sharply to the $4.56–$4.68 per bushel range, reaching one-month lows. July soybeans dropped more than 36 cents to $11.92 per bushel. July wheat on CBOT fell 17–20 cents to $6.58 per bushel.

The declines followed disappointing results from the Trump-Xi summit, which failed to produce new commitments for U.S. agricultural purchases. Broader commodity prices, including energy, fertilizer, and food, face upward pressure from the Middle East conflict. The World Bank forecasts a 16% rise in overall commodity prices for 2026.

What Analysts Are Saying

Ole S. Hansen of Saxo Bank noted that the Bloomberg Commodity Total Return Index (BCOM TR) rose 2% for the week despite pressure on precious metals and soft commodities. Energy strength is lifting the index, with a year-to-date gain of 30%. Hansen highlighted the shift from “just in time” to “just in case” inventory strategies as a supportive factor.

Hansen also pointed out that the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield climbed above 4.5%, its highest level of the year and up 50 basis points since the Iran conflict began. The Bloomberg Dollar Index rose 1.23% on the week.

Bottom Line

Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East remain the dominant driver for commodity markets, with sharp energy gains offsetting weakness in metals and agricultural commodities. Markets remain highly volatile.